Europe Explained

Oil is the thread that links a war in the Gulf to bills across Europe. On Sunday 1 November, Iranian and Qatari officials held a third straight day of talks aimed at a deal to end the war between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other. Qatar is acting as the go-between, passing ideas from one side to the other.

Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said the talks were "ongoing and progressing" and that Tehran is prepared for both defense and diplomacy. Markets listened. On Monday 2 November, Brent crude futures, a widely quoted oil price, fell $1.59, or 1.40%, to $111.84 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $102.56.

Falling is not the same as cheap. Brent had ended October at its highest level in six months, amid concerns that the conflict could escalate after the American midterm elections on 3 November. One analyst said Brent could approach $120 a barrel if the rhetoric around Iran escalates after the vote. Attacks on oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz are also raising global energy and shipping costs.

Other forces are pulling on the price too. OPEC+, the group of oil-producing countries that agrees output levels, kept its December production targets unchanged on Sunday.

The war itself became an election issue. Trump started it in February, and higher oil prices from it were cited as a factor in his party's losses. Vice President JD Vance wrote that "The reason we lost is the war." Trump called that "largely true" because the war raised gasoline prices in the short term, but said he would do it again, because "it's the only answer" in the long term.

The politics moved after the vote. According to the Morning Star, Iran's rulers celebrated the US midterm results as a rebuke of President Trump, while Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei dismissed the prospect of a major change in American policy toward Iran.

Britain's prime minister, Andy Burnham, said his government will consider apologising for the first time for Britain's role in the transatlantic slave trade. He ruled out reparations, which are payments to make up for a wrong, and offered a "structured dialogue" with affected nations.

The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting is being hosted by Antigua and Barbuda in St John's from 1 to 4 November. The Commonwealth has 56 independent member nations, many of them former British colonies, and it is Burnham's first summit as prime minister.

Burnham said people alive today cannot be held liable for historical wrongs they did not commit, though Britain "participated in the trade in human lives". Instead of reparations he wants to tackle debt, giving vulnerable countries longer repayment periods and lower interest rates.

Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley welcomed the acknowledgment but said differences remain on reparations. Antigua and Barbuda's Gaston Browne called it a "significant and welcome development" but said the Caribbean's position on reparations is unchanged.

Ukraine's winter fear arrived early. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said strikes overnight on 1 November hit power sites in four regions, leaving hundreds of thousands of households without electricity. The air force said it intercepted 371 of 433 long-range drones fired since the evening of Saturday 31 October.

Then came a bigger blow. On Tuesday 3 November, Ukraine's energy ministry said, Russia carried out one of its largest attacks of the year, hitting facilities in 10 regions. People in Kyiv were without running water for more than 16 hours, until pumping stations restarted on Wednesday afternoon, the utility Kyivvodokanal reported.

President Trump has repeatedly urged an energy ceasefire, a promise not to hit power plants. Kyiv says it backs a full ceasefire on energy targets, including its own grid, but that Moscow will not agree.