Cyclone Arnab is forecast to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam around the forenoon of 28 October. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects sustained winds of 115β125 kmph, with gusts up to 140 kmph, but warns that the track and intensity may still change.
The IMD has issued red alerts, its highest warning level, across Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Odisha, with extremely heavy rain expected in parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh on 27 and 28 October. Reports list red alerts for heavy rain in 11 districts of Andhra Pradesh, five in Odisha, four in Chhattisgarh and four in Telangana.
Preparations are well under way. Fishermen are strictly barred from the sea: of 30,043 fishing boats in Andhra Pradesh, 29,952 had returned to their landing centres by a report published on 24 October, with 91 still heading in. In Odisha, schools, colleges and Anganwadi centres in five districts stay closed on 28 and 29 October, and Ganjam has 100 cyclone shelters ready with 1,000 temporary locations identified. The chief minister has directed that people in vulnerable areas, especially the elderly, patients and pregnant women, be moved to safer places.
Cyclone warnings follow a simple logic: the earlier people move, the fewer are at risk. The measures reported so far fit that logic. Boats are ashore, fishermen are barred from the sea, schools are shut, and shelters are ready. Because the forecast track and strength could still change, the IMD's estimate is a forecast, not a promise, and the picture may shift before 28 October.
The IMD also forecasts heavy to very heavy rain across Odisha from 27 to 29 October, even though the crossing is expected on the Andhra coast. That is why alerts reach states far from the likely crossing point.
Cyclone Arnab is a big storm over the Bay of Bengal. It should reach the coast of Andhra Pradesh on 28 October.
Winds could reach 115 to 125 kmph. Red alerts, the highest warning, are out in several states.
Fishermen must stay off the sea. In Odisha, schools in five districts will be shut on 28 and 29 October. Many cyclone shelters are ready, and people in risky places are being moved to safer ground.