The Junior Explorer · ages 9–11 · 2026-10-17
A Warm Pacific Is Quieting the Atlantic Hurricane Season
Forecasters say this year’s Atlantic season is likely to be a quiet one.
Hurricanes are giant storms that form over warm ocean water. This year, forecasters expect El Niño, a warm pattern in the Pacific Ocean. NOAA, the US weather agency, said there was a 90% chance of a strong or very strong El Niño during August, September and October.
El Niño changes the winds high in the sky over the Atlantic Ocean. Those winds can break up storms before they grow. NOAA said every strong El Niño since 1950 has come with a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season.
In August, NOAA said the chance of a below-normal season was 75%. In May, it had been 55%. It expects 7 to 13 named storms. Even so, NOAA’s leader warned that “it only takes one” storm to cause trouble.
Why it matters
Knowing a season may be quiet helps people plan, but one storm can still be dangerous, so families should keep their plans ready.
CHANCE OF A QUIET SEASON. NOAA raised the chance of a below-normal season.